Market Commentary

Q4 2018

A year to forget The past year has been one of the worst for global markets. The world index suffered its heaviest decline since the great recession: down over 11% (but 17% from its January high!). [CHART 1] The robust earnings growth went largely unrewarded on concerns that the longest bull run in history would … Continued

Q3 2018

Current Environment As September marked the 10th anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, there was widespread commentary on the likely source of the next crisis. While opinions varied significantly, the consensus view was that it was impossible to predict: like the ‘sucker punch’ in boxing, it’s the one you don’t see that gets you. While recognising that … Continued

Q2 2018

Global economy The global expansion is now entering its 10th year, one of the longest on record. And yet it appears that it still has further to go. Although the synchronised upturn among global economies appears to be losing some of its cohesion, conditions remain robust. However, business cycles across the globe are now beginning … Continued

Q1 2018

Backdrop Despite solid economic and earnings growth globally, the past quarter has been characterised by massive volatility and weak equity markets worldwide. From the January market peak, the world market index collapsed by 9%, then rebounded by over 5%, before declining again by a further 6%. [CHART 1] While this volatility may be commonplace among … Continued